Craig Wright is out there using the legal system in an attempt to silence people who don't believe he's Satoshi Nakamoto. The absolute ridiculousness of this only makes me think that he is definitely not Satoshi, but I've always thought it didn't matter whether he was or wasn't. Bitcoin is Frankenstein's monster, and it now has so many children and the like. If he ever definitively proved he was Satoshi, I think it would be bad for Bitcoin. I think BItcoin Core supporters would move to something else, and things would change significantly in the market. In that respect, it might have a good effect. But this is entertaining a patently false notion, that of his being Satoshi in the first place, now isn't it?
I definitely think it was a bull trap, the recent "bull run." Not a run at all, really. Runs are sustained and last a long time. This was definitely a trap, and so many funny things about it, like how it launched on April Fool's Day. Might end up calling it the April Fool's Day Massacre, instead of any positive-leaning name, in the history books. Taking some time for things to deflate. Was neat how BCH took the charge and gained in both important markets: BTC and fiat.
I don't like people who are sure of things in technology. There's a lot to be unsure about. I'm wary of anyone who confidently says much about crypto. There are only a few statements we can say confidently. Here are some:
- Many people are committed to crypto for non-financial reasons.
- The markets don't shake such people out when they are bad.
- Many people don't understand how or why crypto works.
- There is an existential threat of Keynsian economics invading the crypto space. Both Ethereum and Monero, major coins, will have infinite inflation. Although it's controlled inflation, it's still different than what we expected, coming from Bitcoin. Time will tell which model actually succeeds. In the case of Monero, at least, the motivation is simply to keep people mining when. The current mining reward isn't very high, and the long-tail reward won't be either. Still, complicated mathematics don't necessarily help the question of long-term dilution.
- Many people are tribal in their crypto support.
It is easy to let our newfound interests get the best of us, and think that this or that is the one true thing. But I'm good about being pretty agnostic. This is helpful being a crypto journalist. I'll tell you right now that in 2017 when the Bitcoin Cash fork was announced and the original site went up, I thought it was a joke. The website looked like something you could make on Wix, and overall support for the fork didn't seem strong at first. But I kept an open mind, and I'm glad to see there's a thriving community building around it.
Bitcoin SV would be so much better off without Craig Wright and Calvin Ayre. They've got at least two amazing development teams and some interesting projects, but the continued drama on Twitter from Ayre, and the normal drama from Wright, is detrimental to their community's expansion. What's funnier is how many of their people who are sure that Craig is Satoshi actually came into crypto quite late. If you were around in the early days of crypto you know that the question of Satoshi Nakamoto was a big one, but most people had the respect not to care. It's like being more interested in Stephen King than his books. Not a good look if you're going to call yourself a literary expert. Craig Wright was unable to prove himself to be Satoshi the first time around, and that's enough for me to say he probably isn't, but like I said in item 1 of this post, it would probably drive people away from Bitcoin if he could suddenly claim all those old coins.