There are numerous end-of-year predictive analyzes that show a disappointing otulook for the year 2019, with a strong emphasis on a possible recession scenario marked by the volatility problems of traditional markets, a trade war between China and the US. That still does not start my way of seeing adn of course an excess pumping of the oil markets that will contract the emerging and third world economies where the largest amount of oil reserves is concentrated.
However, there are factors to think that the US and is technological stronghold of Silicon Valley will fight in the midst of a supposedly unfavorable scenario, to maintain the integry of its economy.
Most of these extreme predictions have been based on the simple mathematics calendar, rather than the basics. The fact is that we will celebrate the tenth anniversary of the official end of the last recession in June. Therefore, many experts predict that we are obligated to have another in 2019, simply because the average period between this type of recessions is 6.5 years.
But the so-called experts are overlooking some very important economic data that show that the US is not likely to be the largest economy in the world; have two consecutive qurters of negative GDP in 2019, the official definition of a recession.
Technological stocks are heavily oversold, with some giants practically printing money in more than 20% since October, placing them in bear market territoy. This is the initial step for a bounce around the corner. The economy is in great shape in general. USA it has the best wroking climate in decades, and consumer confidence is near 15 years highs.
Corporate profits are on fire, especially among high profit technology leaders. Zacks says the companyś S&P 500 earnings in the third quarter increased 25.7% compared to the same period last year, with 8.4% more revenue.
Companies have just obtained the largest tax cut in decades, which has been particularly useful for technology since that sector already had high profit margins.
The World Economic Forum says that the United States has the most competitive ecnonomy on globe. We just celebrated two major quarters of GDP, which increased by 3.5% in the third quarter, after 4.2% in the second. That is the best consecutive growth the US has had in four years.
Perhaps the biggest challenge for this year 2019 is the possible trade war with China, even thought the negotiations between the two largest economies in the world are still fluid.
So it is impossible to predict exactly how thing will develop. But it's worth nothing that neither party would fully win a trade war, that's for sure. China needs access to the American market, and in counterpart, the US neeeds the Chinese to continue buying the bonds that help finance government spending.
So, what there is a prediction based on the fears of a commercial war of slower economic growth for 2019 between 2.5% and 2.8%, with strong push by President Donal Trump and his protectionist policies with imposition of tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese products and pursuit of American companies that wish to expand abroad instead of producing at home.
In spite of all this panorama, the technology will again surpass the market in 2019, as it has done since the bull market started in March 2009. After all, the United States is now clearly an economy focused on technology.
The AI is now seeping into every aspect of our lives an already its 60 year winter seems to have come to an end. This 2018 marked an important turning point between the AI, Deep Learning and the branches closely related to the machines. The big companies are moving quickly to adopt the AI in order to create better products at lower cost and quickly provide data of added value to science.
Just to mention two cases: Boeing Co. Expects to make big inroads into an AI initiative that launche jus t over two months ago and HP Enterprise Co. Says that AI is becoming a critical component of how each company in the United States intends migrate to digital platforms. The company forescast that by end of 2019 IA will feed 41% of these transformations.
A recent study by Accenture found that in 12 advanced economies with a combined GDP of approximately $61 trillion, the IA can double economic growth by 2035.
This is why this 2019, AI will really join forces with another critical technology for the US economy: Cloud Computing. MarketsanMarkets says that IA as a service will be great driver of a market that will grow more than 36% a year, and that will have a value of $190.61 billion by 2025. In addition, analysts estimate that the number of firms that offer automatic learning or AI as a service could double this year 2019, from 25 to 50 approximately.
That translates into a huge increase in the scale of AI opportunities and a major blow to the arm for the economy.
After almost 10 years of testing and 5 million driving miles, Google is finally ready to launches the family car as we know it. Google's stand-alone auto unit, Waymo, will launch a taxi robbery service in Phoenix in a matter of months. Here there is much more than a proof of concept. The fact is that a lot of money is at stake.
Intel and Strategy Analytics predict that driverless cars will have a total economic value of $7 billion in 2050. That forecast assumes that almost all 75 million cars produced worldwide will have autonomus technology.
The fact is that, much more than the cars that drive by themselves, autonomus devices surround us and gain ground daily. In the next year, robotic systems are facing rapid acceleration in the United States. The key factor: there are now more jobs avaible than workers to hire, as Baby Boomers retire more quickly than millennials cant take their place.
The global robotic and automation sector will have a value of $ 135 billion this year, according to a forecast by International Data Corp and Statista believes that market will reach $498.6 million in 2025.
The factors that drive this growth are: collaborative robots that are smaller and agnostic to the device (cobots as they are called) and service robots that are used in offices, logistics centers, automated delivery vehicles, mobile factories and medicine.
These are undoubtedly two factors that can boost technology and make it brimming with exciting opportunities for 2019, and even more avoid a recession in the world's main economy and therefore througout the world.